Church of Schwartz

Positives

• Kevin Smith broke 3 tackles today. That brings his career total to 3. But at least its a start. I love the way he has been running the past few games, it looks like the media and bloggers criticizing him really made an impact. Unfortunately, it looks like he’s done for the season.
• At least the commentating wasn’t as bad as Sam Rosen.
• Our chances to get Ndamukong Suh are going up every game.

Negatives

• First play of the game for the Lions defense and Cliff Avril jumps offside like an idiot. Incredibly stupid, undisciplined play. Avril will not be starting for this team next year, no matter how much progress he makes in the offseason. What a terrible disappointment he’s been.
• Dylan Gandy’s play the last couple of games has proven that we don’t have anything with him. He’s strictly a versatile backup, who can start in a pinch but doesn’t belong anywhere near a quality offensive line. He got blown up by Ray Lewis a few times today.
• After watching Stafford throwing darts the last couple months, it’s really difficult to watch Daunte Culpepper throw the football. He’s got no life on his throws and that’s likely the biggest reason they’re picked off consistently. That and the fact that he makes some god awful throws. Drew Stanton needs to start immediately if Matty Saviour can’t go.
• Landon Cohen might be able to bench press 2000 lbs but he’s seriously lacking in the fundamentals of football. He’s living proof that you can be the strongest man in the world and not be successful in the most physical sport in the world if you don’t have the mental wherewithal. I’m not impressed with his play at all this season and the team has been better off with street free agent Joe Cohen in the middle.
• Don Carey and his officiating crew were an absolute disaster in this game. I’m sure they’ll have a strict talking-to at league office this week because there were a lot of blown calls and some questionable officiating throughout this game. It’s the worst reffed game I’ve watched this year.
• I’m pretty confident Marvin White has never wrapped up a tackle in his entire career. Now I know why this guy was out on the street a few weeks ago. His tackling makes Phillip Buchanon look like Ray Lewis.
• Aaron Brown’s 3 yard kickoff return might be the worst single football play I’ve ever seen made. Garo Yepremian’s legendary “throw” in Super Bowl VII now has company in the archives.
• I’ve been pretty complimentary of The Schwartz and the rest of the coaching staff this entire time and I truly believe they are doing a good job with what little talent they have. However, when it’s 34-3 in the 3rd quarter, why are the starters still in and not the rookies? Why is Culpepper still taking snaps? We need to find out if any of these young guys are worth retaining in future years and these are the perfect places to find out.
• The next tackle made by the defense will be the first one made today.

Lost in all the praise that has been heaped on Matthew Stafford has been the small plays that allowed Stafford to make his mark on the franchise. I wanted to point out two separate huge blocks by Kevin Smith and Daniel Loper that allowed Stafford the pull out a miracle.

We’ll start by looking at the 2nd last play of the game. Stafford mad scramble was made possible by two huge blocks. I took a few screen shots since NFL.com steadfastly refuses to be user-friendly and allow embedded videos. The first key play is basically Kevin Smith getting in the way of a hard charging Browns LB, Marcus Bernard. After Gosder Cherilus completely whiffed on a comeback block, Smith got in the way of Bernard, as you can see below.

This allowed Daniel Loper, who hasn’t made a decent play all year, to hustle back and get himself in position to get a solid block on Bernard, which allowed Stafford to throw the pass downfield that eventually caused the interference.

Those two key plays allowed the final play to happen. And on that final play, Kevin Smith made the best block I’ve seen any Lion make this year.

That right there is an absolute textbook cut block on Kenyon Coleman. Coleman was running free on Stafford and if a back like Aaron Brown is in the game, that block is not properly made. The cut block also forced Coleman outside, which opened up a huge passing lane for Stafford to zip the ball to Pettigrew. AND HE ACTUALLY CAUGHT THE PASS!!!

I’ve been critical of Kevin Smith on this blog in the past but he was superb on Sunday. That’s the most complete game he’s played since coming into the league. And the blocks he and Loper made allowed Matt Stafford to display his heroics. One player does not make a team. Without the small contributions from the unsung heroes, the big things are not possible.

Technorati claim: 3Z5X7C4SDFBU

1. With the expected absence of Megatron this Sunday, how do you attack the Packers defense with the weapons you have?

Steve, Detroit Lions Weblog: The Lions had better be prepared to be able to run the ball with an additional man in the box, because no team will respect the Lions aerial attack (especially stretching the field vertically) without Johnson.

The Packers, who feature “bump-and-run” man coverage corners in Al Harris and Charles Woodson, have oddly enough played more zone coverage within Dom Capers 3-4 defensive scheme. If the Packers continue to consistently play zone coverage, given the fact that the Lions are targeting Brandon Pettigrew more frequently, Pettigrew and the slot receivers should be able to find voids in the Packers coverage and take advantage of the Packers lack of a consistent pass rush within their new scheme.

I also expect that the Lions will utilize more screens, swing passes and underneath patterns in an attempt to get the ball out of Daunte Culpepper’s hands quicker, if he is indeed the game’s starter.

Phil, MLive: The offensive line has been up and down this year. The last two games, the line has struggled, both in establishing the run as well as protecting the quarterback. I think the Lions can run on Green Bay if they play like they did against the Vikings and Redskins. That, of course, would open up the pass, where they’ll utilize two tight end sets. Ultimately, though, it’s going to be tough for the team to get it going, offensively, without their star receiver and starting quarterback. The one person who gives them a chance is offensive coordinator Scott Linehan. He’s proven to be creative in his play-calling, adept at catching opponents off guard. Things haven’t always worked to perfection, but I think he’s been able to dial up the right calls to put the players in position to win. Whether they take advantage of being in that position is another question altogether.

Big Al, The Wayne Fontes Experience: Let’s not forget the Lions will also be without Matthew Stafford as well, which is an even bigger loss to the Detroit offense.

Yardage-wise, the Packers’ defense is almost as bad the Lions’ put upon defense, giving up 335 YPG to Detroit’s 358 YPG. In fact, their run defense is just as bad as the Lions’, giving up one yard less a game, 112 to 113. It’s safe to say the Lions are not facing a juggernaut on defensive side of the ball.

With Kevin Smith saying earlier this week the lack of a running game was his fault, what better time to put his theory to the test? Give Smith all the carries he can handle, which should keep the mistakes made by Daunte Culpepper to a minimum. I trust Smith to do the right thing with the ball much more than I do Culpepper. That being, not turning it over!

Another reason to give to ball to Smith? The Packers are tied for third in the NFL in interceptions, with 7. After watching Culpepper hold onto the ball too long and throw it up for grabs against the Steelers, the last thing I want is watching Stafford’s backup doing the same against Green Bay.

The Lions need to keep the Packers’ offense off the field. The best way to do so is to attack the Pack with Smith.

Jeff, Motown Madmen: Run the ball right away. I imagine that Culpepper will be starting this week. There’s not much left to do but run as his usual dink and dunk “passing” won’t win games. The Packers will likely put a lot of pressure on Culpepper so he will have no time in the pocket and either take more sacks, as shown he will last week, or make mistakes. Kevin Smith will have to step it up as well as play by Pettigrew and Heller. If they can establish the run, the short little passes by Daunte may let them score some points. If Stafford does play, start with the run and then let him air it out. As CJ is not expected to be in the line-up, B Johnson, Northcutt and Standeford as well as Heller and Pettigrew should be there to take up the slack. Go deep with Stafford’s rocket launcher and hope for the best.

Josh, Roar of the Lions: While the loss of Megatron (I’m assuming) this week is not good for the Lions, you do what you can. The trick this game is going to be running on the Packers D (which has not been particularly effective against the run) and most importantly, establishing the play-action game. This is the gameplan Minnesota followed, and the one the Lions need to imitate. Fortunately, if the Vikings can pull of the passing game against the Pack that they did with their WR, that should mean Northcutt, BJ, Standeford & Williams can step up and take care of business. What will really matter in this matchup is how the Lions Offensive Line takes on the Packers Dline. Kampman is still not comfortable at OLB, and this only helps the Lions as the Pack had ZERO pass rush on Minny — even worse than the Lions’ line did against them (if that is possible) so protection should be there.

If Daunte plays, the Lions lose. If Stafford starts, they have a chance to keep pace with Rodgers and the pack as long as the Lions D can keep blitzing pressure on him like Minny did. With Daunte under center and CJ, I see GB stacking the box to stop Smith until Daunte proves he can beat them with his arm. Or proves he can’t…

Deacon Blades Boyd, CofS: This is as simple as simple can get. Run the ball whenever Aaron Kampman is on the field. The Packers had an All Pro DE in Kampman then for some reason decided to try and turn him into an outside rush linebacker and to say he’s struggling would be a drastic understatement. Sure he’s great against the pass but he’s a serious liability in the run.

Reverend Spielman, CofS: Everyone and their brother are going to be expecting the Lions to run the ball early and because of this, I think you have to pass early and often, no matter which QB starts. Because there will be additional men in the box(likely a safety), I think the middle of the field will be open season. We need to utilize Pettigrew and Northcutt in there and use the outside receivers as decoys. Once the passing game gets going, it’ll force the Pack to take that extra man out of the box, and thats when Kevin Smith will be best utilized.

2. Which players have been the biggest positive surprise and the biggest negative surprise this year?

Steve, Detroit Lions Weblog: The player who has been most surprising in a positive way for me has been Jason Hunter. Coming virtually out of nowhere as a Packers castoff he has been pretty solid at a position where the Lions don’t possess a lot of talent. In other words, I hate to think about where they would be without him, at this point.

The player who has been a surprise in a negative way is Phillip Buchanon. Admittedly, Buchanon has had a checkered career. But given his improved performance during recent seasons, I expected that he would have no problem procuring a starting job in the Lions incredibly weak secondary. Unfortunately, he has found it difficult to garner playing time.

Phil, MLive: Let’s end with the positive. My negative surprise would be Phillip Buchanon. It’s not like I thought the guy would be Deion Sanders. After all, you don’t find shutdown corners on the market very often. But I thought he’d be a cut above Brian Kelly. He’s turned out to be a major disappointment with his “major” contribution being on special teams. Uhh, I’m not sure that’s what Martin Mayhew had in mind when he signed the veteran corner. As for the positive, though he’s in the media all the time, I have to go with Matthew Stafford. I was an “Aaron Curry guy” leading up to the draft, but Stafford has shown way more potential than I ever thought he would. He’s improved every single week, and the most impressive thing has been how the rookie has displayed the nuances of playing quarterback, such as modifying his cadence. I’m really anxious to see what he does when he returns from injury and has several games in a row to grow, hopefully with Calvin on the other side of his receptions. The potential is there to be really exciting.

Big Al, The Wayne Fontes Experience: Postitive: OT Gosder Churilus. The massive offensive lineman carries the weight of being the final number one pick of the worst general manager in sports history, Matt Millen. Churilus didn’t play all that well as a rookie, as he couldn’t beat out incumbent at right tackle, the oft benched and constantly ridiculed George Foster, in training camp. He finally took over the position 3 games into the regular season, but never stood out in the way you’d hope the 17th overall pick of the draft would.

This season, Churilus has been rock solid from day one. There are plenty of issues on the Lions’ offensive line //cough//JeffBackus//cough//, but the 2nd year tackle has not been one of them. For all the talk of playing for the future, and many of the veterans on the current roster not being around in a year or two, Churilus will be a Lion for the long haul. He, along with fellow number one picks Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson, will be a big part of what’s hoped to be the resurgence of the Lions under Jim Schwartz.

Negative: One player stands out. OLB Julian Peterson. Say what you will about the player the Lions traded to get Peterson, Cory Redding, he did fill a need for the Lions on the defensive line. The Lions weakened what was already a not very good D-line in order to get Peterson, who was supposed to be the Pro Bowl caliber play maker the Lions have needed since…well, damn near forever.

Though it was obvious he was beginning to decline in his last season with Seattle, it was hoped a new environment, and the Lions honoring a contract Seattle was thinking of lopping off of their roster, would give Peterson a new lease on football life. For whatever reason (scheme, teammates, or the most likely reason, age) Peterson has not lived to his glittering reputation.

Peterson has been average at best, far from the Pro Bowl shoo-in he once was, while Larry Foote and DeAndre Levy have picked up the line backing slack. If Peterson doesn’t step up his game, I can see 2009 being his only season in a Detroit uniform.

Jeff, Motown Madmen: My positive would be the 2009 draft class. I know, one player, but I’ve been impressed with the overall performance of this group so far and am please that the draft went so well (we’ll find out for sure in a couple years).

My negative would be the offensive line. Again, not a single player (could be Backus as he’s not a dominate LT). They’ve improved a little but the QB’s still don’ have a lot of time in the pocket and the running game has not really opened up.

Josh, Roar of the Lions: One positive surprise for me has to be Deandre Levy. I didn’t know who he was when the Lions indicated they traded down and still got the guy they would have taken at the top of 3. While I was thrilled with getting Hill, I thought Levy was an odd pick. Not anymore. He has already shown capable of playing all three LB positions well, and seems to be growing better with each game. Sure, he’s had some rookie mistakes but has played well above what I was expecting out of him by the end of the year, much less after 5 games.

I am disappointed by the play of Cliff Avril. I know he has been battling an injury, but he has not shown any of the flashes of the off the edge rush that had me excited to see him progress this year. Instead, we see him struggling to even make an impact as a 3rd down specialist much less an every down DE.

Deacon Blades Boyd, CofS: Positive has to be Levy. The guys going to be a damn good player for years to come. Disappointment has to be Cliff Avril. I mean what the hell happened to this guy??!?!?!? Actually, I could say the same thing for Grady Jackson and Julian Peterson as well.

Reverend Spielman, CofS: The biggest positive for me has to be DeAndre Levy. He’s far surpassed my expectations of him. He is definitely a building block for the defense in the future. The biggest disappointment has been the man Levy has been replacing, Ernie Sims. I haven’t seen any improvement from Sims in the 3 years he’s been in the league. He’s still the same player he was as a rookie and still making rookie mistakes. He needs to stop overpursueing plays if he wants to stay on the field.

3. Whats your projected score for Lions-Packers?

Steve, Detroit Lions Weblog: If Mark Tauscher and Chad Clifton are back and effective, the Lions will lose by two TD’s. If not, Aaron Rodgers and Daunte Culpepper could each struggle as both teams enjoy an unexpected ability to pressure their respective opposing passer. Given the fact that the Lions have not won in Green Bay since 1991, there is no reasonable way to believe that is going to change now, especially without Calvin Johnson and Matthew Stafford.

Packers 31 Lions 20

Phil, MLive: If the Lions can take advantage of the Packers’ weak offensive line, I will definitely be wrong here. But injuries might be too much to overcome. Packers 27, Lions 17

Big Al, The Wayne Fontes Experience: The Lions haven’t beat the Packers at home since the Majik Man, Don Majkowski, was scrambling around the frozen tundra for the Pack. That was 19 games ago, as the Lions have lost 18 consecutive road games to Green Bay.

Another of Detroit’s long losing streak continues, as a Lions team without Stafford or Johnson doesn’t have a chance in Hell of beating the Pack at Lambeau Field. The man who replaced the man who replaced The Majik Man, Aaron Rogers, has a field day picking apart the Lions’ defense, while Stafford’s caddy at quarterback, Daunte Culpepper, continues his struggles in the red zone.

Green Bay 35 – Detroit 16.

Jeff, Motown Madmen: Vegas has the line at 13 in favor of the Pack and the O/U at 48. The weather in Green Bay is expected to by in the low 40’s and partly cloudy at game time. I wouldn’t think that will be a factor. The Lions look to have several players sit out this week, possibly including Stafford, Megatron and Ernie Sims (good idea on all three, bring them back after the bye week). I see Rodgers having a good game against the Detroit secondary but the Lions keeping it reasonably close.

Packers 24 – Lions 17. I’d take the Lions against the spread and the under.

Josh, Roar of the Lions: Hmmm… I’m going to say “shoot-out” and leave it at that. If Daunte starts, Lions in the 20’s somewhere and the Pack ring up 30, but not 40. Anyone else note that of the 20 year losing streak at Lambeau, the Lions have only played the Pack in the first half of the season at the Pack 3 times? The other 17 were late, with at least 3 the final game of the season when the Frozen Tundra home advantage was in full play. Just sayin.

If Stafford starts, I still think the Lions lose — but a close shoot out. They have a chance win as the Pack are more beatable right now than any opponent other than Washington this season — unfortunately, I don’t think this team is ready to play the kind of game they need to on the road to secure the win. It will take a minimization of mistakes ala the Steelers game that I just don’t see happening at Lambeau.

Deacon Blades Boyd, CofS: With Calvin for a full game, Lions 27-Packers 21. Without Calvin, Packers 31- Lions 13.

Reverend Spielman, CofS: If Matthew Stafford starts, we win this game. If Daunte starts, I think the only way we win is if the defensive line and linebackers get serious pressure on Aaron Rodgers. I don’t see that happening and I see the Packers winning a close shootout because of this.

1. With Jason Hunter being our best D-Lineman so far, what happens when Cliff Avril returns?

Steve, Detroit Lions Weblog: The old sports adage is, you don’t lose your job due to injury (with apologies to Wally Pipp, of course), and I’d assume that the Lions will allow Avril every opportunity to overtake Hunter, with the caveat that he perform productively immediately, while Hunter remains incessantly hot upon Avril’s heels for playing time. I also think that the Lions will look at the various match-ups, game situations, etc and take advantage of having both of them, utilizing their individual strengths and attempting to protect their respective weaknesses.

Hunter’s performance has been one of the more surprising and inspiring of any Lion during this early juncture of the season, and benching him would be counter-productive, at this point. DeWayne White’s injury factors into Hunter’s playing time for at least one more week, it would seem.

Big Al, The Wayne Fontes Experience: The same thing happening to CB Phillip Buchanan and may soon be happening to OLB Ernie Sims…they’ll have to earn their starting job back.

Jim Schwartz has said time and again no one is guaranteed a starting spot. They have to work to keep it. Schwartz lived up to his word by benching Buchanan for Will James before the Redskins game. James played well, and remains the starting corner going into this week’s game with Chicago.

This is a good thing, as the Lions may slowly be developing something they have long lacked…DEPTH. You can’t have too many good players, and if that means there may not be enough playing time to go around, tough. So what if Cliff Averil was starting? It’s not as if he was blowing anyone away with his play.If Hunter is the better player, you go with him. Period. Of course, Averil will still play, but it’ll be in a different role. As the aforementioned DEPTH.

John Houseman used to say in ads for Smith-Barney, “They make money the old fashioned way. They EARN it.” The same can be said about winning a starting job under Schwartz. “They win a position the old fashioned way. They EARN it.”

Jeff, Motown Madmen: I think that if Hunter can keep up the good work, he should continue starting. Why ruin the chemistry. Avril can split time with Hunter and they’ll have two, good, fresh guys in the opposing quarterbacks face all game. Another good option would be to move Hunter to the right side and let White be the back-up. White hasn’t played as well this season and it might be the better starting line-up.

Josh, Roar of the Lions: Hunter has been getting pressure in bursts, but Avril still is more of a speed rush end where Hunter has been a bit stronger against the run. If anything, I think it solidifies a more fluid rotation to keep all of those guys fresh. Hunter showed up well early, but the entire Dline looked a bit gassed by the time the last Washington drive was coming up. We have to keep understanding that with Schwartz (and Cunningham) fresh legs on the Dline are a key component of the defense. Who is starting is not as important as the split of the snaps – the more talent there is, the easier it is for him to keep everyone fresh and putting the most pressure possible on opposing offensive lines. Avril, White and Hunter will see the bulk of the snaps, while Fluellen will continue to get his share, especially on running downs. Hunter and Avril are both young players, so this bodes well for depth at DE going forward.

Deacon Blades Boyd, CofS: You play him. You play him instead of Dewayne White. Avril looked brutal in preseason but I think he just needs time to develop so let’s cross our fingers and hope he develops the into the only good pass rusher we’ve had since Robert Porcher.

Reverend Spielman, CofS: He plays and Dewayne White sits. It’s that simple. White is on the downside of his career and aside from a moment here and there, has done nothing to warrant consistent starting time. It’s time for the Avril/Hunter show to take over!

2. With Kevin Smith ailing, what is your plan of attack for the Bears defense?

Steve, Detroit Lions Weblog: Smith’s full participation in Thursday’s practice was a very good sign. The Bears are banged up at linebacker, with Smith, and the healthier Maurice Morris and Aaron Brown in a rotation, considering the improved early season performance of their once ineffective offensive line, I would imagine the Lions will attempt to play power football against the Bears Tampa-2 defense.

I also expect that the Lions will attack the soft middle of the Tampa-2, since the Bears no longer have Brian Urlacher patrolling the middle of the field. Brandon Pettigrew should have a big game exploiting Hunter Hillenmeyer, Nick Roach and company up the seam.

Big Al, The Wayne Fontes Experience: Hopefully this question is moot, as Smith has started practicing late in the week. Smith had a great game against the Redskins, taking pressure off of Matthew Stafford and the passing game with his 6+ YPC average. If Smith can’t go, or is limited in his playing time, the Lions aren’t going to get the same production out of the Morris/Brown combination. Especially against the Bears, who are in the top half of the league in rushing defense.

So…I might answer this question the same way when it comes to Detroit taking on any NFL team. My plan of attack?

Calvin Johnson.

Get him the DAMN BALL! Seriously.

Scott Linehan has to get Megatron the ball more than the 6 times he touched it against Washington. We saw the Stafford to Johnson connection click in the exhibition season. I’d love to see it click again when the games actually count.

Jeff, Motown Madmen: I’m hoping Smith will be able to play against Da Bears. It sounds like he will as he did return to practice on Thursday. His playing time might be limited if he’s still sore. If not, I like Brown starting over Morris. He’s quicker and is more likely to bust open for a big play. Use Morris on 3rd down and Felton at the goal line. The Lions must establish the ground game against Chicago for them to have a chance at another victory. Bryant Johnson needs a couple big plays to hopefully free up CJ from what will probably be double coverage. If Stafford can be accurate and the O-Line can give him time to get the ball away, they may put up a lot of points. They’ll need to dominate the clock like they did against the Skins last week.

Josh, Roar of the Lions: Run it up the gut still with Morris, Felton, and Brown and continue to run outside sweeps with all three. They are hurting at LB and having to bring at least 8 into the box to even hope slowing down the run game will be the case no matter who is the RB if the O-Line continues to play at the level it did against Minnesota and Washington. Chicago has good DT’s, but are they better than the Williams Wall, or Haynesworth – both of whom the Lions were able to run on? The heavy run will burn time off the clock, and then the play action game will lead to some great pass plays. With so many LB hurt, I would also attack the underneath routes and get Pettigrew especially matched up on a LB. This will force them to cheat a Safety on the short routes, and bring a LB in the box which will leave CJ or BJ open deep. It will prevent them from easily taking CJ away, and lead to more throws to him like we saw in the second half against Washington since taking him out of the game totally leaves the Lions with too many other options to beat you with (BJ, Pettigrew, and the run game). If Smith plays, but isn’t 100%, then expect him to be rotated with Morris, but also with Felton early. I would use Felton early and often to soften up the Bears’ weakness up the middle.

Deacon Blades Boyd, CofS: I’m certainly not sold Morris or Brown that’s for sure. I think the plan of attack will be to throw a lot of screen passes and be creative in the running game. Also, finally, we might get to see Stafford make more throws. Either way, it’s not going to be pretty.

Reverend Spielman, CofS: Rarely do I place the importance of a game on one player shoulders. However this is the week. If Kevin Smith plays effectively this week, we will win this ballgame. If anyone else plays, we’re going to lose. The weak spot in this defense is now in the middle with Urlacher out. Any Tampa 2 defense needs a Pro Bowl caliber MLB to function effectively and Hunter Hillenmeyer certainly isn’t in that class. Without that Pro Bowl MLB, the middle of the defense can be exploited again and again with runs and dump offs to the TE. Kevin Smith will run angry through the holes in the middle and make the Bears respect the play action. And when they do that, Calvin and Bryant Johnson should be able to beat the Bears CBs without safety help. And that is how the Lions win the football game.

3. What’s your prediction for Bears-Lions?

Steve, Detroit Lions Weblog: Coming off of a huge victory (Hey, any victory for the Lions is huge), playing a road game, the Lions fatalist in me expects a flat performance serving as a bit of a letdown, negating any organizational gains made last Sunday.

That being said, I also believe that as talented as the Bears are offensively with the addition of Jay Cutler, I still believe that they have some flaws there and injuries are taking their toll on the Bears defense, too.

The Lions will likely lose, but I think, if Matthew Stafford refrains from ill-timed interceptions, that it is not beyond the realm of comprehension that the Lions will battle the Bears deep into the 4th quarter.

Bears 24 Lions 17

Big Al, The Wayne Fontes Experience: I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again. Yes, the Lions are improving. No, they are not a good team…not yet, anyway. The Redskins win was great, and badly needed. The Buccaneers’ record losing streak no longer looms over the Lions’ shoulders like an albatross. Regardless of the happiness and good karma which resulted from ending the streak, the Lions still have a very long way to go before they can even be considered mediocre.

One win, great as it was, doesn’t change a thing. The Lions’ upside is only that of a 4-5 win team. This week will just be more of the same.

The Bears are a playoff caliber team with legit Super Bowl hopes led a young, veteran quarterback. The Lions are still a last place team reeling from a decade of front office incompetence led by a young rookie quarterback.

In other words, on paper, this is a mismatch. It’s a mismatch on the field too.

The Bears end the Lions’ 1 game winning streak.

Chicago Bears 30 – Detroit Lions 17.

Jeff, Motown Madmen: The big problem here is Jay Cutler, Devin Hester and Earl Bennett.. Cutler’s played extremely well of late and can put a hurt on the Lions weak secondary. They’ll need to step up and keep the WR’s from breaking any big plays. The Lions should blitz early and often, putting pressure on Culter and keeping Forte, who’s off to a very slow start, from producing. I’m hoping that Stafford continues to improve and both Calvin and Bryant Johnson can have a big day. Vegas has the spread at 11.5 for the Bears with the O/U at 38. If the Lions can play with energy and determination I think they can keep this game close. I certainly hope I’m wrong but Chicago is looking like they want the division over the Vikes and usually play well at home. I’d take the Lions against the spread and the over. Bears 28 – Lions 24.

Josh, Roar of the Lions: 24-16 Lions. I think this is another close game, but that the Lions take away the run game again (Chicago has had about as much success on the ground as Washington) which will allow them to apply pressure and keep Cutler rattled in the swirling winds of Solider Field. It will be your classic black-and-blue physical battle, with either team capable of winning. Unlike 2 of the Bears’ wins, however, they can’t at all count on Jason Hanson missing a pair of field goals to give the Bears a chance at victory. Lions pull the upset.

Deacon Blades Boyd, CofS: Bears will destroy the Lions. And by destroy, I mean will win by 21 or more. I’ll say 34-9.

Reverend Spielman, CofS: I’m going to shock everyone when I say that I think the Lions will win this game going away. I think it’s going to be a high scoring affair with the Bears defense having no answer for the Lions constant pressure in the middle of the field with runs and dumpoffs to Pettigrew. Once the Bears begin to respect the playaction, it’s game over for their CBs against CJ and BJ. I’m calling Lions 38, Bears 21. However, if Kevin Smith doesn’t play, I think you can reverse that score.

Positives

• Will Heller and Brandon Pettigrew – the running game just seemed to flow better on the plays where they were on the field. We’ve been missing a solid blocking TE for years and now it appears we have two quality options. Pettigrew looked pretty good running his routes also. I’d be happy if we had the 2nd coming of David Sloan this season.
• All 3 QBs – Everyone looked like they had complete command of the offense.
• Calvin Johnson – He’s going to have the most TDs of any receiver in the NFL this season, regardless of who is throwing to him. This guy is the most gifted receiver to come into the league since Randy Moss.
• Kevin Smith – He’s a load and I wouldn’t be surprised if he starts to see some more goalline carries. The thing I like best about this guy is he always falls forward, he never goes backwards. It looks to me like he’s dropped his pad level slightly this year also, so that should help him avoid more hard hits.
• The Linebacking Corps – They are going to be really, really good.
• Aaron Brown – I’m going to be the first to admit I was way wrong on this kid. He’s definitely got game breaking talent that we haven’t seen since Barry Sanders. I think his most valuable role this year will be as a full time returner.
• Overall Depth – Our 2’s have consistently beaten the other team’s 2’s in the preseason, which is great for when the inevitable injuries strike. We haven’t had depth in decades it seems.

Negatives

• Billy Cundiff – Come back ASAP Jason, those kickoffs were some of the most horrific I’ve ever seen.
• The Offensive Line – For the most part, the line didn’t look great to me. I was especially disappointed by Jeff Backus. It seemed to me like he was getting beat on nearly every play, only to have the QB step up in the pocket and elude the pressure. I know Indy has some good rushers in Freeney and Mathis but Backus needs to do better. He just looks too slow to be playing LT. I’d love to see Daniel Loper and him switch places on the line.
• Derrick Williams Returning Punts – Scary to say the least. He doesn’t look the least bit comfortable back there and his decision making leaves a lot to be desired. I want to see more of Aaron Brown in that role.
• The Lions Secondary(without Henry and Buchanon) – We need those two guys healthy. Keith Smith is a nickel corner at best and he may not even be that. It’s scary what kind of numbers Manning could put up against this unit in a full game.

As many of you faithful readers know, I have been highly critically of the Lions in the off season so I hesitant to write this but I do so cautiously.

All reports from the Lions off season program have been fairly positive. Below are a few reasons I MIGHT hold out hope they win 3 games this year.

-Kevin Smith is one year better and a year wiser. Last year he guaranteed the Lions make the playoffs and this year, he was a little smarter saying “we should be in the playoffs.” That may seem insignificant to some, but to me, it shows that he is slowly maturing and realizes that he can’t talk his way into the playoffs. I am concerned about him picking up the Lions new offense since he has played in a zone blocking scheme since high school but watching him play he reminds me more and more of a young, healthy Kevin Jones.

-I reserve judgments on all rookies until I actually see them play but I’m slowly warming up to Brandon Pettigrew. I still think it was a stupid pick and a complete waste of a pick but I can’t blame the kid. So, I’ve been doing some research on him and he actually seems like a solid character guy who might help out in the long run. From all accounts, his run in with police was with an officer who has a history of picking on athletes. If he can improve his receiving abilities, he might be a an okay pick. And as for Louis Delmas, again, he looks like the real deal.

- Although guys like Larry Foote, Bryant Johnson, Eric King and Julian Peterson are on the back end of their careers, they are solid character guys and it seems they are beginning to change the attitude in the dressing room. Hopefully it continues.

- It looks as if Brett Favre will return to the Vikes, meaning that the Lions now have 3 winnable games. St. Louis and the two games against the Vikes.

These are just a few reasons, I’d love for everyone to chime in on this and if anyone else has any other reasons for optimism, I’d love to hear it.

Current Depth Chart

1. Kevin Smith – This kid is a horse and I love him. He’s been relatively injury free during his college and young pro career despite his stand up running style. He seems to find a way to avoid the huge hits that former young Lion Kevin Jones always seemed to take. I think he’s a stalwart as our starter for at least the next 5 years. With a better offensive line and offensive coordinator, he’s a lock for 1000 yards this year.
2. Maurice Morris – The versatile back that the Lions lacked last year, Morris will likely play a lot of 3rd downs next season. He’s a nice special teams option also.
3. Aaron Brown – Terrible draft pick who is only this high because of his return capabilities. I still doubt that he’ll be active on many game days though.
4. Aveion Cason – Far and away the worst move of the offseason was resigning this pylon. If he even plays a minute of special teams, I’ll be pissed off. Cut him and sign an undrafted rookie and we’ll probably be ahead of the game.
5. Allen Ervin – Allen’s best contribution to the team will likely be playing the role of the opposing team’s RB so the Lions defense can prepare for him.

Current Free Agents to Consider

There are a few veterans left unsigned who I would consider adding for the veterans minimum. However, I doubt Warrick Dunn and Edgerrin James would accept that. So it looks like this position is set heading into the season.

The always reliable Adam Schefter is reporting that the Lions have inked Maurice Morris to a 3 year, $7 million deal. I think this is a great signing and he’s just the type of back we need. He’ll change up the pace on 3rd downs and if Kevin Smith does get injured, Morris can fill in admirably. He’s shown me a lot the last few years in Seattle and I think Mayhew and The Schwartz have made a great acquisition here.

The Situation

The running back position in Detroit could be solidified for years to come with last years third round pick of Kevin Smith. He proved to me late in the year that he can be an every down back in this league. With a sufficient offensive line in front of him, he may even become a star. Whats needed now is depth around him and a fallback option.

The Players

Kevin Smith - 2 years, $1.3 mil salary+bonuses remaining

Brian Calhoun – 1 year, $.7 mil salary+bonuses remaining

Allen Ervin – 1 year, $.3 salary remaining

Intriguing Free Agents

Darren Sproles – His name is being mentioned in connection with the Lions and he would fill two huge holes. He’s instantly give us a viable option in the return game and fill in as a great 3rd down back. My only worry is that he’s going to be looking for feature back money after his late season work. I think he’ll end up pricing himself out of the Lions range.

J.J. Arrington – This is my #1 priority at the position if I’m the Lions braintrust. Arrington got off to a rough start in the NFL but he fills the same needs as Sproles, he’s a hell of a lot cheaper and he’s younger. He could very well grow into the player Sproles is, as long as he’s not asked to be the fulltime feature back.

Draft Prospects

Javon Ringer – Might as well keep it in the state. The Michigan State product has the ability to fill the 3rd down back and returner roles. If he’s available on the 2nd day, its a no brainer to me.

Plan of Action

Kevin Smith is the future of this team at the RB position. I think there are a few very nice options to fill the holes around that feature back position. J.J. Arrington is my preferred route and I think if the Lions act quickly, they can snag him. If that fails, I look into drafting Ringer. Allen Ervin is essentially a practice squad body and Brian Calhoun gets injured getting out of bed every morning. In case you’re wondering about short yardage situations, I’ll address that in FB position analysis.

Every week leading up to the draft, we’re going to take a look back at the Millen regime’s outstanding draft record….

1. 17th Overall – Goster Cherilus, RT

Shoulda Had: Joe Flacco, Jeff Otah, Aqib Talib

Avoided: Kentwan Balmer

Verdict: Looking like a moderate bust but still early.

Analysis: Well, at least we didn’t draft Vernon Gholston, who looks like the second coming of Mike Mamula. I’m sure Millen would’ve if he had the chance. I think Cherilus will be a starter in this league but I think he’s going to shift inside to guard. He’s not going to be half the player Jeff Otah will be however.

2. 45th Overall – Jordon Dizon, LB

Shoulda Had: DeSean Jackson, Ray Rice

Verdict: Looking strongly like a bust.

Analysis: This is probably the worst pick of this entire horrific draft. I’m not sure what Matt Millen was thinking when he picked Dizon while a guy like Dan Connor was still on the board. Dizon has struggled mightily to adjust to the NFL and he may never be anything more than a special teamer.

3. 64th Overall – Kevin Smith, RB

Shoulda Had: No one

Verdict: Very good pick, with potential to be great.

Analysis: Nabbing Smith with the first pick of the third round might be looked upon as Matt Millen’s best draft pick ever, which isn’t saying much. Smith has shown serious potential in limited spurts behind a porous offensive line. He’s got nowhere to go but up. I’d be shocked if he doesn’t run for 1000 yards next season under Scott Linehan.

3. 87th Overall – Andre Fluellen, DT

Shoulda Had: Steve Slaton

Verdict: Not enough playing time to judge.

Analysis: Fluellen just didn’t get a chance to play under the reign of Maribarry. They apparently valued the veteran uselessness of Langston Moore and Chuck Darby. Expect him to get a fair shot under Gunther Cunningham.

3. 92nd Overall – Cliff Avril, DE

Shoulda Had: Dwight Lowery, Quintin Demps

Verdict: Might turn out to be a steal.

Analysis: Avril showed flashes of brilliance on his late season callup from the practice squad. It wasn’t until the Lions were on the brink of immortality that Maribarry gave him a chance. There is no clearer damnation of Maribarry than their failure to give this obvious talent a chance. Instead we were subjected to reruns of the 1999 season, with Jared Devries occupying the DE position.

5. 136th Overall – Kenneth Moore, WR

Shoulda Had: Brandon Carr

Verdict: Bust, pure and simple.

Analysis: Millen would’ve been better off drafting Herman Moore’s dog than this pilon.

5. 146th Overall – Jerome Felton, FB

Shoulda Had: Tim Hightower, Kroy Biermann, Josh Morgan

Verdict: Pretty good pick.

Analysis: I love Felton’s toughness. He’s a warrior out there and I think Kevin Smith and him can form a solid backfield going forward. Ideally, I’d love to have Kroy Biermann but I’m pretty happy with this Felton pick.

7. 216th Overall – Landen Cohen, DE

Shoulda Had: Demetrius Bell, Peyton Hillis, Chris Horton

Verdict: Not very good.

Analysis: He did nothing. He’ll do nothing. He’s nothing to me. At least Demetrius Bell is Karl Malone’s kid. That would’ve given me something to write about.

7. 218th Overall – Caleb Campbell, S

Shoulda Had: A degree from a different school

Verdict: The best man of all the Lions draft picks.

Analysis: I hope Caleb comes back from Iraq one of these days to play for the Lions. I’d gladly take him over Paris Lenon any day.