Church of Schwartz

1. Explain how you’d defend the Vikes this week.

Steve, Detroit Lions Weblog: I think limiting Adrian Peterson and the Vikings rushing attack is the only way in which the Lions can keep this game even remotely close. First off, by playing with nine guys in the box, and forcing the game onto Brett Favre’s old, crumbling shoulders, they may gain an advantage by causing a couple of turnovers from “Ol Grizzly Beard.”

Even with the Lions weak secondary, I would take my chances with Favre attempting to connect with Bernard Berrian, Sidney Rice and Visanthe Shiancoe down the field, and making Favre prove he still has the range and accuracy with his deep ball to be effective.

The other thing I’d consider is gambling on a lot of “run blitzes” from the Lions linebackers and secondary. Honestly, what do they have to lose. Peterson is a force of nature, he will still likely gain 100+ yards, regardless of the Lions defensive stratagem. My thinking is that in order to keep the game remotely close, Peterson must gain fewer than 125 yards.

Ty, The Lions in Winter: I think the key is actually going to be completely denying the passing game. The Lions probably can’t stop AD even if they try . . . the best thing to do would be to completely deny the pass. Blitz, zone blitz, run blitz, press coverage, and demand the Vikings lackluster receivers make the Lions pay. Shorten the Lions’ field, and lengthen the Vikings’, with special teams. Force sacks and turnovers, and get the ball out of AD’s hands. If the Lions can then strike quickly through the air, suddenly it’s the Vikings who will be back on their heels, and AD won’t be as much of a factor, even if he’s gashing the Lions for six yards a carry.

Phil, MLive: There was a time when answering this question with “let Brett Favre beat you” would have you thrown in the insane asylum. That time has passed for Mr. Indecisive. The Lions have had relative success against Adrian Peterson, holding the superstar to a hair under 100 yards per game in the four times they’ve faced him. So, first off, I’d try to keep the running game in check and have Favre put the ball in the air. Now, Favre’s had the Lions’ number his whole career, so that might be the case again. Then again, he might toss a couple of picks as he’s been known to do, also. Favre is no Bernie “Brickfeet” Kosar, but it’s not like he’s the Favre of old. Those legs aren’t getting him around like they used to, so they may be susceptible to some pressure. Yes, I implied the Lions defense could produce some QB pressure. Now stop laughing at me.

Big Al, The Wayne Fontes Experience: The Vikings will go as Peterson goes, not Brett Favre. If I’m Gunther Cunningham, I put a spy on Adrian Peterson, place 8 men in the box, and try to punish him by hitting the Vikings star with as many bodies as often as possible. A tall order, to be sure.

The Lions won’t get much push from their defensive line, which means they’ll have to gamble on defense more than they did against the Saints, who tore apart Cunningham’s uber-conservative defensive play calling. They should have gambled more, Drew Brees was killing Detroit straight up. (Having CB Phillip Buchanon back can only help in that regard) Detroit’s most talented players on defense are the linebackers, so I’d blitz Peterson and Sims, daring the 39 year old Brett Favre to try and beat me.

Best case scenario, the Lions control Peterson, force the aged past his prime Favre to make tough throws, and take control the game. Worst and more likely scenario, Peterson runs WILD, and Favre spends most of the afternoon throwing short, safe passes and handing off, chewing up clock.

Jeff, Motown Madmen: Stop Adrian Peterson. Butt Favre went 14 of 21 for 110 yards with 1 TD and was sacked 4 times. Peterson had 25 attempts for 180 yards and 3 TD’s and only had 1 catch for 18 yards. I know the Lions secondary is in bad shape but I believe they really need to put the pressure up front, trying to stuff Peterson and keeping Favre from throwing the ball. It will be a daunting task. The Lions did not spend a lot of time getting to Brees last weekend, keeping guys back in coverage and he still torched the Lions. Pressure from the D-Line is a must. I hope Cunningham steps it up big time against the Vikes.

Josh, Roar of the Lions: There are a lot more ways to defend the Vikings than there were the Saints. Best idea I’ve heard is to assign one LB to shadow AP every play. At the same time, bring at least one extra rusher at Favre (preferably in a run-blitz) every down. Harvin is a dangerous threat, but Favre isn’t the Favre of 5 years ago. Put the game on his back, and blitz him to rattle him. He isn’t settled into his hot reads yet, and the Vikings aren’t loaded with the kind of talent at WR that the Saints are. Take away AP and make Favre beat you. With Buchanaon (hopefully) back, that will be a boost to the secondary as he is definitely a step up from Eric King, who was brutalized by Brees for no less than a half dozen significant plays last week on his way to proving beyond a doubt King is NOT an NFL starting CB. The Lions, for whatever reason, have always done well keeping AP in check — especially at Ford Field. Favre doesn’t have the patience of Brees, and will make more mistakes.

If the defense can force Favre to feel the game is on his shoulders to win, he will start pushing to make plays — if the defense takes advantage like it did last week at New Orleans, then they can keep the Lions in the game. Minnesota may have the “Williams Wall” but dump-off screens to Kevin Smith and Pettigrew underneath, with a dose of maybe Felton/Smith up the gut, and Brown on the edge can wear them down. Get them chasing ball catchers down on the short routes and they will get gassed pretty quickly — when Minny rests them, or gives them help underneath, that will open up CJ and the play-action game deep as well as help with the run game.

The Vikings are counting on running out the clock with AP and stopping the opposing team with the Williams wall to win the game — turn it into a shootout and lock-out AP and the tide could favor Detroit. It’s a big IF…

The key will be that LB to shadow AP so he never gets “lost” as they move him around, and so that he isn’t getting any one-on-one matchups with guys in the secondary when he has momentum. Put it on Favre, and hope he pushes into mistakes…and run blitz the “Millen” out of them.

Sean, Pride of Detroit: I’d worry first about Adrian Peterson and hope that I can contain him. The old phrase “you can’t stop him but can only hope to contain him” applies to this situation, as I don’t really see how the Lions will keep Peterson from having a career day. Maybe the fact that his career day already is so ridiculous will mean that he doesn’t set a new career high like Drew Brees did last week.

After worrying about Peterson it’s necessary to remember that Brett Favre is the Vikings’ quarterback. I don’t expect the ball to be in the air very much, but in obvious passing downs I would try to put pressure on Favre. All it really takes for this to be a close game is a couple Favre interceptions, so any chance I get I would put some heat on him. (A couple Peterson fumbles like we usually see would also be helpful.)

Deacon Blades Boyd, CofS: The Vikes love to run off tackle. 75% of their run plays are off tackle then Peterson just does what he does. I’d make Brett Favre beat you. Stack the box and have the DL play inside shade.(DT play between the center and guard and the tackles play between the guard and DE) Then put Sims and Peterson outside the DE’s and stack a DB there as well. This takes away from the Vikes inside game and prevents them from running off tackle. If this works, you might be able to contain Peterson to under 100 yards and force them beat you through the air. After watching the Vikes passing game last, I’d rather try that then anything else!

Reverend Spielman, CofS: The only chance the Lions have to win this game, and to defend the Vikings, is to score early. It’s often been said that the best offense is a good defense but in this case, the best defense is a good offense. If I’m Scott Linehan, I talk all pregame about how the Lions want balance and want to establish the running game. Then on the first series of the game, I let Stafford unleash that heavenly arm downfield to CJ and BJ. I’m confident those two guys can come down with the balls over the likes of 5′7″ Antoine Winfield and Cedric Griffin. There is no longer a Darren Sharper patrolling those deep balls like there has been for so many years. Once the Lions establish the deep game on the unsuspecting Vikes, they can run the football and in the process, keep AP off the field. That is the only way they win this game.

2. How do you fix the Lions inability to run the ball in short yardage situations?

Steve, Detroit Lions Weblog: We heard so much hoopla about how the Lions offensive line had really taken to playing power football in the pre-season. Yet, here we are, one week in, wondering whether they will be able to move the ball in short-yardage situations, let alone run effectively at all.

This is where players like Ephraim Salaam, Jon Jansen and Manny Ramirez figure heavily. The Lions have got to be absolutely ruthless in their pursuit of finding the right combination of players to play along their offensive line. If Backus, Cherilus, and company falter, it is past time to see if they can gain better results from their bench.

Maybe using some “old school”, “Power-I” formations (or “Double Tights” with Pettigrew and Heller) with another jumbo player, Will Heller or a guard, along with Jerome Felton and Terrelle Smith could aid them in their ability to pick up those tough yards that otherwise seem so hard for them to come by.

Ty, The Lions in Winter: Well the “jumbo” package, with Smith and Felton in the backfield, looked awesome in the preseason, but ineffective against the Saints. I think the Lions are going to have to rely on misdirection, play action, and fades to Megatron in short yardage–especially against the Vikings.

Phil, MLive: I’ll say C) Don’t get down my multiple touchdowns in the first five minutes of a game. The sad thing is, logically, you should be able to pick up short yardage situations easier when you’re down a lot because the other team is probably playing softer to protect against the big play. But the onslaught seems to happen so quickly with the Lions that their offensive gameplan is shot to hell before you can crack open your second icy-cold of the game. So I’d say the important thing is to get into a rhythm on offensive. Which means more second-and-short opportunities that keep a defense guessing. Then, whether you convert the second-and-short or whether you’re forced to third-and-short, you have the upper hand, strategically, which helps the guys up front with the battle for the trenches.

Big Al, The Wayne Fontes Experience: Long-term, there are some things only talent can fix. Short yardage situations is one of them.

In short yardage, and for that matter, red zone situations, it’s all about the offensive line getting leverage on the defense, blowing them back off the line. Unfortunately, the Lions offensive line, to be blunt, blows. They are often overwhelmed by a massive push from the defense, forcing the running back to make his first juke move before he even gets to the line.

Play calling can help, but just a little. We saw how well misdirection worked when Kevin Smith took a pitch out for a red zone TD last Sunday. But NFL defenses aren’t going to be fooled continually. Which is when you need to out talent and out execute the opposition…and we know that’s not going to happen…

I can’t see how changing personnel packages will help. The Lions just don’t have the talent or depth to do so. Not yet, anyway.

Jeff, Motown Madmen: I think it’s play better. Kevin Smith had the worst outing of his carreer last week and vows to step it up. The Vikes D-Line is good, especially with the Williams playing and not on suspension. The Lions boys up front need to get some lanes open and try to push the Vikes back at the line, not let them into the backfield. They were able to block their guys against the Saints but if the Vikes bring it, Smith and Stafford may not have a good day. Stafford needs to air it out more but do so making good reads and following his progressions. He’ll do fine in the NFL, hopefully stud worthy at some point soon, but he is still learning the NFL game. I so like hearing Stafford to CJ for a big gain!

Josh, Roar of the Lions: Just play better. You don’t get much more jumbo than Heller, Pettigrew, Terelle Smith and Jerome Felton with the rock. The Line especially just needs to man-up and blow those guys off the ball into last season. They also need to get Pettigrew more involved in the passing game versus Heller — Heller dropped two good passes for first downs that Pettigrew likely would have caught. Even one more first down keeps a drive alive, and the defense off the field…

Sean, Pride of Detroit: This is a really interesting question. It seems like for the longest time now the Lions have struggled in short-yardage situations, such as inside the 5-yard line. We’ve had different coaches, formations, and players at most positions during these struggles, but the one constant I see is on the offensive line: Jeff Backus and Dominic Raiola. That’s not to say that those two are solely responsible for the Lions’ short-yardage deficiencies, as maybe the bigger problem is an overall lack of talent. In the larger scheme of things Backus and Raiola may contribute to that lack of talent, as they certainly appear to be part of the problem.

Deacon Blades Boyd, CofS: Well first and foremost don’t run a toss with no lead blocker on 3rd and 2. Secondly, let Jerome Felton run. He was stuffed on that 3rd and 1 play but he was able to get it based on pure effort. The other thing I didn’t understand, and this goes back to the Mike Martz days as well, is when you have a FB like Terrelle Smith, why in god’s name do you not put him in the game to lead block on those situations?!? I counted four third and short situations and Smith was in the game for one of them. USE HIM!!

Reverend Spielman, CofS: You are not going to be able to run the ball up the middle this particular week against the Vikes. The Williams Wall will eat up the Petermans and Raiolas of the world. I think the best bet this week, and most weeks, is to stack two TEs(Heller and Pettigrew) on the right side and run right behind Cherilus. He’s the one guy on the offensive line that can get some push in the run game. Utilize Terrelle Smith in front of Felton and just keep pounding away. Cherilus has that nasty streak that you need in goalline situations.

And of course, don’t run the ball 3 straight times. Calvin Johnson is probably the best receiver in the NFL at catching the fade patterns. Line him up on the left side and force another Vikes defender to stay on that side of the field to double him. Man, I should really be an offensive coordinator.

3. What’s your projected score for Vikes – Lions?

Steve, Detroit Lions Weblog: Vikings 24 Lions 10

Favre the new-and-improved “game manager” shows nubile Lions QB Matthew Stafford, the brash, turnover prone rookie that you have got to know when to fold ‘em, when to walkaway, and when to….run!!!!

Ty, The Lions in Winter: My “official” projection is a bloody, ugly, low-scoring, turnover-filled affair, with a slight edge to the Vikings. As much as I desperately want the Lions to win, and think they have a legitimate chance to do so, put me down for 24-20, Vikes.

Phil, MLive: The Vikings have blown out the Lions only once in their last four meetings – a 42-10 drubbing in 2007. The other three games were: a 20-17 win, a 12-10 loss and a 20-16 loss. And yes, I’m very well aware that Favre gives the Vikes a real quarterback under center, as opposed to the last couple of seasons. Still, I’m not sold on his abilities anymore and, as stated above, the Lions have played respectable defense against Peterson. So I don’t see the obvious pummeling, as others I’ve talked with do. I’ll take the Vikings over the Lions, 27-21.

Big Al, The Wayne Fontes Experience: Viking control the ball with Peterson, while the Detroit offense again struggles to score touchdowns. Vikings win, 24-13. The “streak” reaches 19.

Jeff, Motown Madmen: The line now is about 9-1/2 points with the O/U at 46.5. That would put the game at around 28-18 in favor of the Vikes. I’ll take the over and the points. It’ll be closer that the line and the Lions will score 28 points themselves and hopefully beat Minnesota.

Josh, Roar of the Lions: Lets go 27-24 Lions over Vikings in a hard fought contest.

Sean, Pride of Detroit: I predicted this to be the Lions’ first win before Brett Favre unretired, and I still think that could happen. I’m just not as confident in the Lions winning, though that is more because of the lack of a decent running defense than it is Favre. Let’s be serious, Tarvaris Jackson had a great game against us last year, so I’m not worried about who the Vikings’ QB is. The only player that truly worries me is Adrian Peterson, who on paper is probably expected to rush for 400 yards in this game. Okay, maybe that’s a bit of an exaggeration, but when you consider that Mike Bell rushed for 143 last week, it does make you wonder how big Peterson’s stats will be.

As far as my prediction, I think the Lions will have to wait a little longer for their first win of the season, though this game will be close just like they usually are when the Vikings are involved. I will say Minnesota wins 23-20 on a late field goal.

Deacon Blades Boyd, CofS: Anyone who actually thinks there will be an upset needs to get off the drugs. Vikes 37-Lions 10.

Reverend Spielman, CofS: If the Lions follow my plans, they’ll get their first victory since the calendar said 2007. If not, they’re going to lose in a hard fought, close game. Let the final be Vikes over the Lions 27-24.

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